Deciders

[Coxy]

Interesting, in QLD's 5 year series run, we've only had to deal with 2 deciders. 2006, and 2008. On both occasions NSW won the first game and QLD won the 2nd, so we went into the deciders with some momentum and confidence.

First time we've faced a decider having lost game 2 since 2005.

Deciders

2008: QLD won 16-10 in Sydney (QLD won game 2 30-0)
2006: QLD won 16-14 in Melbourne (QLD won game 2 30-6)
2005: NSW won 32-10 in Brisbane (NSW won game 2 32-22)
2004: NSW won 36-14 in Sydney (QLD won game 2 22-18)
2002: Draw in Sydney (QLD won game 2 26-18)
2001: QLD won 40-14 in Brisbane (NSW won game 2 26-8)
1999: Draw in Brisbane (NSW won game 2 12-8)
1998: QLD won 18-14 in Sydney (NSW won game 2 26-10)
1994: NSW won 27-12 in Brisbane (NSW won game 2 14-0)
1992: NSW won 16-4 in Sydney (QLD won game 2 5-4)
1991: QLD won 14-12 in Brisbane (NSW won game 2 14-12)
1987: QLD won 10-8 in Brisbane (QLD won game 2 12-6)
1983: QLD won 43-22 in Brisbane (NSW won game 2 10-6)
1982: QLD won 10-5 in Sydney (QLD won game 2 11-7)

QLD 8, NSW 4, 2 drawn.

Four times has QLD won a decider after losing game 2 (1983, 1991, 1998 and 2001), and once drawn. So exactly 50% of our decider results.

NSW have won two deciders after losing game 1 (1994 and 2005) as well as one draw (1999).

Useless statistics for you :P

 

[dukey]

History is more or less irrelevant, I think. The Blues need the momentum of winning game 2, but Queensland are still heavy favourites. Interesting statistics to ponder, though.

 

[Big Pete]

Queensland haven't won Game 3 at Suncorp since 2003 either.

Also a bit off-topic but I always marvel at how history has seemingly revised itself when it comes to those draws. Sure, the record books will state as such but at the time, those draws certainly felt like victory to the Maroons. Only one team seemed to be celebrating and it wasn't the Blues who were racing to the rule books to 'fix' things.

 

[Coxy]

History is more or less irrelevant, I think. The Blues need the momentum of winning game 2, but Queensland are still heavy favourites. Interesting statistics to ponder, though.

Of course history is irrelevant, but I'm a nut for stats :P They don't mean anything, and aren't something you use to judge anything (especially player performances), but they're still fun.

 

[mrslong]

Smells of 2006. Qld barely lost Game 1 coming off an unprecedented amount of series defeats.
Qld went back home and won a dominant display (of course it was much more dominant then NSW last night)
Game 3: backs to the wall victory against all the odds and injuries and bad refereeing away from home.

Only thing different this year is that the game is being played in the much more hostile Brisbane not Melbourne.

But all the ingredients are there for history to repeat.

Also don't forget game 3 in 2006 our backline was : Schifofske, Tate, Wesser, Hannay & Mogg. Diabolical really.

 

[Big Pete]

I'm getting a more 2005 vibe really.

Game 1 - Queensland dominate the majority, NSW fight back and hit the lead, Queensland wrestle it away.
Game 2 - Queensland go into halftime infront, NSW produce a near perfect second half.
Game 3 - The game is basically lost in the opening 15 when NSW absord a lot of the Qld attack and then repel and blow Qld off the park.

Unsure whether or not the Game 3 scenario will take place though...

 

[Coxy]

Interesting point, Lil Pete.

Game 3 @ Lang Park
2009: NSW won 28-16 (QLD won series 2-1)
2007: NSW won 18-4 (QLD won series 2-1)
2005: NSW won 32-10 (NSW won series 2-1)
2003: QLD won 36-6 (NSW won series 2-1)
1999: Drawn 10-10 (Series 1-1, QLD retained shield)
1996: NSW won 15-14 (NSW won series 3-0)
1995: QLD won 24-16 (QLD won series 3-0)
1994: NSW won 27-12 (NSW won series 2-1)
1993: QLD won 24-12 (NSW won series 2-1)
1991: QLD won 14-12 (QLD won series 2-1)
1990: QLD won 14-10 (NSW won series 2-1)
1989: QLD won 36-16 (QLD won series 3-0)
1987: QLD won 10-8 (QLD won series 2-1)
1986: NSW won 18-16 (NSW won series 3-0)
1985: QLD Won 20-6 (NSW won series 2-1)
1984: NSW won 22-12 (QLD won series 2-1)
1983: QLD won 43-22 (QLD won series 2-1)

So game 3 @ Lang Park stats:
Games played: 17. NSW 7, QLD 9, Drawn 1. However, since 1994 stats are alarming. NSW 5, QLD 2, Drawn 1.

Interesting side stat. Of the 17 series where Lang Park was the 3rd game, QLD won or retained the shield 9 times, NSW 8.

 

[QUEENSLANDER]

I dont think there is an advantage going in with a win and "momentum". Over the history of origin, before our dominance, it was usually W L W for the winning team. A loss brings a team back to earth and gives them more enthusiasm to get revenge. we will win in game 3 coz of this

 

[Coxy]

I dont think there is an advantage going in with a win and "momentum". Over the history of origin, before our dominance, it was usually W L W for the winning team. A loss brings a team back to earth and gives them more enthusiasm to get revenge. we will win in game 3 coz of this

Well stats above show it wasn't really WLW all the time :P

From Game 3 2005 backwards (from QLD's perspective):

LLWLWLWLLDWLWLWLLLDLWWLW

From last night back to start of 2006:

LWWWWLWWWWLLWWWWL

 

[mrslong]

I'm getting a more 2005 vibe really.

Game 1 - Queensland dominate the majority, NSW fight back and hit the lead, Queensland wrestle it away.
Game 2 - Queensland go into halftime infront, NSW produce a near perfect second half.
Game 3 - The game is basically lost in the opening 15 when NSW absord a lot of the Qld attack and then repel and blow Qld off the park.

Unsure whether or not the Game 3 scenario will take place though...

The difference of 2005 is that NSW were completely confident, and had Joey.
Qld weren't confident and had new halves.

eusa_think

 

[Kimlo]

I dont think there is an advantage going in with a win and "momentum". Over the history of origin, before our dominance, it was usually W L W for the winning team. A loss brings a team back to earth and gives them more enthusiasm to get revenge. we will win in game 3 coz of this

Well stats above show it wasn't really WLW all the time :P

From Game 3 2005 backwards (from QLD's perspective):

LLWLWLWLLDWLWLWLLLDLWWLW

From last night back to start of 2006:

LWWWWLWWWWLLWWWWL

Coxy, where do you find all these stats from [icon_razz1
I'm going with the WLW theory, it suits QLD :)

 

[Nashy]

Not as confident with the team they had playing last night.

 

[Coxy]

I dont think there is an advantage going in with a win and "momentum". Over the history of origin, before our dominance, it was usually W L W for the winning team. A loss brings a team back to earth and gives them more enthusiasm to get revenge. we will win in game 3 coz of this

Well stats above show it wasn't really WLW all the time :P

From Game 3 2005 backwards (from QLD's perspective):

LLWLWLWLLDWLWLWLLLDLWWLW

From last night back to start of 2006:

LWWWWLWWWWLLWWWWL

Coxy, where do you find all these stats from [icon_razz1
I'm going with the WLW theory, it suits QLD :)

http://stats.rleague.com/rl/soo/soo_idx.html

 

[Professor47]

That 2006 game 3 backline was LOL. That is why that game is HUGE.

Honestly though NSW are just waaaaaaay too confident at the moment - I'll admit, it has me nervous... first time since the run I'm second guessing myself. Big game. I think game 3 2011 is the biggest game to date. The MORE I think about it, the more important 6 series is... it just IS. Cmon QLD.

 

[mrslong]

The way NSW are carrying on, including the commentators, the journo's, the players, the fans (ick), we HAVE to win.

If we lose it will negate the last 5 years imo, and also, we need to send Locky out a winner. we NEED to.

Oh I'm so nervous already.

 

[Browny]

I cant see QLD putting in another performance like wednesday night.

We seemed a little flat and didnt really put much against them with our attack.

Add in the motivation for Locky, the way the blues et al are carrying on, Big Mal sending em a rocket, we will fire up icon_thumbs_u

 

[Anonymous person]

rabs was good on the footy show last night - he made everyone step back for a second and stop talking about how awesome NSW are for winning, and said that no matter what happens you cant take away the fact that this QLD is the best team that state of origin has ever had, and that they won 5 series in a row, and he said 'for the next 3 weeks at least, they are still the champions'.

was awesome of him to say i think. i think lots of people are - possibly intentionally - trying to forget the fact that we have won 5 years in a row, which is 2 more years than any team has ever done, just so they can say how awesome NSW are because they won a single game.

i agree with mrslong - in a way, though not to me, NSW winning this series will negate the last 5 years of hard work by the Queensland team. but if we win this year, itll just be the same next year - the longer we keep winning, the better the NSW media/fans will think NSW are for eventually beating us. we might have won 10 in a row, but when they finally win 1 theyll carry on like theyre better than us because they beat the team who won 10 in a row.

 

[Coxy]

I just love the notion from Gould that the Blues "should've won game 1" and so "Should've won the series already".

Could've said the same in 2004 when NSW fluked a GP field goal to win game 1 despite QLD outplaying them.

That's the thing about Origin being so even. Games are won or lost on bounce of the ball, a single set of six, a single defensive play (good or bad). There's no "should've" about any Origin game.